Idea
A legal price cannot cancel an outside option
If the same metal can be exchanged for more in another market, its holder has a reason to move it. Official denominations do not erase that comparison. Buying where an asset is cheap and selling where it is dear also pushes on the discrepancy: demand rises in the first place and supply in the second.
The comparison must include costs. Shipping, insurance, and the time between exchanges can consume a narrow apparent gain. A posted price is therefore only the beginning of the calculation. A durable gap may reflect a barrier to completing the trade rather than an opportunity everyone has overlooked.
Money moves toward the better exchange, after the journey is paid for.
Compare executable trades, not isolated prices.
Where it breaks down
Many strategies called arbitrage retain risk from changing prices, counterparty failure, or an imperfect match between assets. A theoretical risk-free relationship should not be confused with a guarantee about a real transaction.
How it connects
Outside options explain why official values cannot be considered in isolation.
This idea appeared in The price difference that moves the money, the Involves connection for September 26, 2026, which asked: Why does a small mismatch between markets attract so much activity?
Check yourself
Why can a visible price gap persist?
Costs or barriers may prevent profitable completion of the trade. Exactly. The relevant gap is what remains after the costs and constraints of execution.
What the sources establish
Official coin values do not eliminate alternative bullion values in other markets.
Sources
Observations upon the State of the Coins of Gold and Silver (Isaac Newton; The Newton Project), Gold-silver ratios and exportable silver bullion
Response to an Order to Report on Gold and Silver Coin in Britain (The Newton Project, University of Oxford), September 21, 1717 report and recommendation to lower the guinea